It’s still before dawn when hundreds of Chinese missiles begin to rain down on Taiwan, striking airfields, radar arrays, anti-aircraft batteries, and communications centers temporarily silenced by cyber-attacks.
Something else to factor in is the fragility of Xi Jinping's rule, which is endangered by any failure. There is a younger generation inside and outside the CCP which is ready to shelve the retro ideology of the last 15 years and to normalize China's interface with the world.
No one can guarantee that China will behave rationally but if they do, they will engage in subversion rather than invasion. And the calculus is not about the US, it is about Taiwan. Perpetual living as a beleaguered country after a time saps the will. Their defense expenditures suggest that has already happened. Unlike Israel, Taiwan isn't surrounded by an alien culture that wants to exterminate them and even Israel is showing signs of strain. Of course, they could probably create a nuclear deterrent in pretty short order or acquire one from Japan which has an even shorter fuse. That, however, will do no good if Taiwan votes to merge. This would be in return for guarantees (which will be violated after a decent interval). Such a vote would probably lead to civil war or perhaps a coup in Taiwan which would be a major can of worms for the US.
The most dangerous global challenge for the Trump administration is the same one that *Biden flunked-Ukraine. Not only does it carry the risk of global nuclear war but it has wrecked the international financial and commercial system. And the US is handicapped by its lunatic allies in NATO who seem to be eager for the global war that would utterly destroy them. So we need to make peace with Russia, not just peace between Russia and Ukraine. Hopefully, this can be done without sacrificing Ukrainian independence but we may be too deep in the hole. Best hope is that Russia doesn't want that mess other than the Russian speakers.
None of this is an argument against fixing the US military and industrial base. Should I be wrong about the incentives or should one of the other powers behave irrationally, that way we will be better prepared. And the problem goes well beyond military issues. Most of the world's medicines are manufactured in China or India with Chinese precursors. Going to absurd lengths, 90% of the worlds buttons come from one city in China. I guess we could use our strategic antler reserve.
Can a nation have a second golden age, or a third? History says "No" for most nations, but some seem to flout the rule. For example, each permutation of Rome had its own great time. I hope America can do the same; however, it does probably mean that whatever America comes next will be very different from what came before.
If Greenland is any indication, perhaps more literally imperial, unlike the past figurative situation?
There are powers that have had multiple turns as a Great Power-China, Russia and Persia come to mind. In all cases, it has been after decades or even centuries of decline and chaos.
I visited Taiwan as a serviceman during the Vietnam conflict of the '60's. As in Vietnam, at the top immense wealth. In the cities, at bottom, the poor trapped in third world poverty and misery. And, what was probably millennium long desperation to survive for those still clinging to the land. Between them a teetering paper thin sorrow soaked circus of shop and bar owners providing booze and "entertainment" to green kids like myself. The uniting factor for all concerned, was the smiling stage managed gunpoint political/black market corruption and criminality that determines who will eat and who will serve. But then, against all odds, in a drunk 4:00 a.m. moment, out of the corner of my blue foreign eye, upright in rags and bigger than the lie, stood human dignity refusing to die.
I am also "deeply skeptical of America’s sprawling empire" and have frequently questioned the wisdom of using US troops to defend Taiwan. However, I do much like living under an American empire, while I detest the sorts of policies our recent leaders have used that empire to force down others throats. If Trump can take us back to the 1990's American empire (which actually was a "rules based international order") I would be on board with retaining it.
Funny that we still say "blood and treasure" when referring to the costs of war. When was the last time we had treasure that wasn't financed by many trillions of dollars of debt?
Graham Allison wrote a thoughtful book a few years back and popularized the term The Thucydides Trap which seems to fit what is being described. The US is the established power and China is on the make. Sadly, historically, confrontations like this have mostly ended in war but it does not have to. I think NS is perfectly correct that our military has been investing in the last war for decades especially the Navy and that we do not have an in place industrial capacity to sustain a long war. China knows that with few exceptions the US wars last a short time (Afghanistan was an exception), because our people grow tired of privation, and endless body bags and our political leadership is ultimately commanded by public opinion. They learned that in Vietnam. We see this being played out in Ukraine. Ukraine can not win the war ultimately if Russia is willing to continue to fight, the disparities in population and resources are too great. The same is true of China/US they don't have to defeat us all they need to do is wait until the will of our political leadership quails before the popular mass.
During the TET attacks of 1968, Walter Cronkite broadcast from the Imperial Hotel in Saigon as the rockets impacted saying what you hear behind me is the sound of the United States losing the war in Vietnam. He was wrong tactically but right psychologically. China knows this and it will exploit it.
If they invade and we don't hit them hard early and with devasting force neither Taiwan or the US will win the war.
So China takes Taiwan and destroys Taiwan's tech economy while also causing a response from the rest of the world to disconnect from China's economy.
That does not make sense.
The US has a bank of leverage in that it runs a near $1 trillion trade deficit, and mostly with China, and abundant natural resources. The US only relies on China for the cheap manufacturing labor... a reliance that has already begun to fade. Conversely, China relies on the US for its export markets... for its tech... for educating its scientists and engineers... China is more reliant on the US than the US is reliant on China.
Russia had less to lose expanding territory by military force. China has much more to lose. And the Chinese people having tasted the benefits of looted Western capitalism will not be happy being knocked back into a version of communist hell.
There is national pride driving the Chinese resistance to Taiwan independence, but the CCP isn't stupid.
I think the bigger threat is going to be if the US under Trump decouples from China and it creates the economic and political unrest that we saw in Hong Kong before the pandemic. In that case the CCP under Xi might move toward military aggression and expansion as a distraction to help maintain their power.
An excellent summation of the status quo, but better, a realistic assessment of the stakes. Should war break out across the Taiwan Strait and Beijing somehow take the island, the US would suffer not only the credibility blow cited, but the loss of TSMC with its semiconductor tech would be a disaster for American AI leadership and much else. Taiwan remains way ahead of the competition in terms of production techniques, and keeps its cutting edge tech in Taiwan by law. Probably very wisely so, as it makes Taiwan very costly for the US to lose.
Hopefully the Trump team will figure out a mix of dealmaking and deterence that works. An allied democracy of 24 million that’s also a really crucial trade partner—arguably more so than Japan, if you think it through.
China is free to attack Taiwan so long as it wishes an American embargo on Chinese imports. We don't need anything that they sell. We don't want anything that they sell.
Walmart will always buy cheap junk from the lowest bidder, and there will always be a lowest bider. But we should buy from our friends not our enemies.
Something else to factor in is the fragility of Xi Jinping's rule, which is endangered by any failure. There is a younger generation inside and outside the CCP which is ready to shelve the retro ideology of the last 15 years and to normalize China's interface with the world.
No one can guarantee that China will behave rationally but if they do, they will engage in subversion rather than invasion. And the calculus is not about the US, it is about Taiwan. Perpetual living as a beleaguered country after a time saps the will. Their defense expenditures suggest that has already happened. Unlike Israel, Taiwan isn't surrounded by an alien culture that wants to exterminate them and even Israel is showing signs of strain. Of course, they could probably create a nuclear deterrent in pretty short order or acquire one from Japan which has an even shorter fuse. That, however, will do no good if Taiwan votes to merge. This would be in return for guarantees (which will be violated after a decent interval). Such a vote would probably lead to civil war or perhaps a coup in Taiwan which would be a major can of worms for the US.
The most dangerous global challenge for the Trump administration is the same one that *Biden flunked-Ukraine. Not only does it carry the risk of global nuclear war but it has wrecked the international financial and commercial system. And the US is handicapped by its lunatic allies in NATO who seem to be eager for the global war that would utterly destroy them. So we need to make peace with Russia, not just peace between Russia and Ukraine. Hopefully, this can be done without sacrificing Ukrainian independence but we may be too deep in the hole. Best hope is that Russia doesn't want that mess other than the Russian speakers.
None of this is an argument against fixing the US military and industrial base. Should I be wrong about the incentives or should one of the other powers behave irrationally, that way we will be better prepared. And the problem goes well beyond military issues. Most of the world's medicines are manufactured in China or India with Chinese precursors. Going to absurd lengths, 90% of the worlds buttons come from one city in China. I guess we could use our strategic antler reserve.
Taiwan should be handled like Hong Kong was: peacefully turned over to China on a negotiated schedule.
Sucks for the Tainwanese, but having their country bombed to bits would suck worse.
Can a nation have a second golden age, or a third? History says "No" for most nations, but some seem to flout the rule. For example, each permutation of Rome had its own great time. I hope America can do the same; however, it does probably mean that whatever America comes next will be very different from what came before.
If Greenland is any indication, perhaps more literally imperial, unlike the past figurative situation?
There are powers that have had multiple turns as a Great Power-China, Russia and Persia come to mind. In all cases, it has been after decades or even centuries of decline and chaos.
My scenario is much more Austria 1938 than Poland 1939.
I visited Taiwan as a serviceman during the Vietnam conflict of the '60's. As in Vietnam, at the top immense wealth. In the cities, at bottom, the poor trapped in third world poverty and misery. And, what was probably millennium long desperation to survive for those still clinging to the land. Between them a teetering paper thin sorrow soaked circus of shop and bar owners providing booze and "entertainment" to green kids like myself. The uniting factor for all concerned, was the smiling stage managed gunpoint political/black market corruption and criminality that determines who will eat and who will serve. But then, against all odds, in a drunk 4:00 a.m. moment, out of the corner of my blue foreign eye, upright in rags and bigger than the lie, stood human dignity refusing to die.
I am also "deeply skeptical of America’s sprawling empire" and have frequently questioned the wisdom of using US troops to defend Taiwan. However, I do much like living under an American empire, while I detest the sorts of policies our recent leaders have used that empire to force down others throats. If Trump can take us back to the 1990's American empire (which actually was a "rules based international order") I would be on board with retaining it.
Funny that we still say "blood and treasure" when referring to the costs of war. When was the last time we had treasure that wasn't financed by many trillions of dollars of debt?
Graham Allison wrote a thoughtful book a few years back and popularized the term The Thucydides Trap which seems to fit what is being described. The US is the established power and China is on the make. Sadly, historically, confrontations like this have mostly ended in war but it does not have to. I think NS is perfectly correct that our military has been investing in the last war for decades especially the Navy and that we do not have an in place industrial capacity to sustain a long war. China knows that with few exceptions the US wars last a short time (Afghanistan was an exception), because our people grow tired of privation, and endless body bags and our political leadership is ultimately commanded by public opinion. They learned that in Vietnam. We see this being played out in Ukraine. Ukraine can not win the war ultimately if Russia is willing to continue to fight, the disparities in population and resources are too great. The same is true of China/US they don't have to defeat us all they need to do is wait until the will of our political leadership quails before the popular mass.
During the TET attacks of 1968, Walter Cronkite broadcast from the Imperial Hotel in Saigon as the rockets impacted saying what you hear behind me is the sound of the United States losing the war in Vietnam. He was wrong tactically but right psychologically. China knows this and it will exploit it.
If they invade and we don't hit them hard early and with devasting force neither Taiwan or the US will win the war.
So China takes Taiwan and destroys Taiwan's tech economy while also causing a response from the rest of the world to disconnect from China's economy.
That does not make sense.
The US has a bank of leverage in that it runs a near $1 trillion trade deficit, and mostly with China, and abundant natural resources. The US only relies on China for the cheap manufacturing labor... a reliance that has already begun to fade. Conversely, China relies on the US for its export markets... for its tech... for educating its scientists and engineers... China is more reliant on the US than the US is reliant on China.
Russia had less to lose expanding territory by military force. China has much more to lose. And the Chinese people having tasted the benefits of looted Western capitalism will not be happy being knocked back into a version of communist hell.
There is national pride driving the Chinese resistance to Taiwan independence, but the CCP isn't stupid.
I think the bigger threat is going to be if the US under Trump decouples from China and it creates the economic and political unrest that we saw in Hong Kong before the pandemic. In that case the CCP under Xi might move toward military aggression and expansion as a distraction to help maintain their power.
An excellent summation of the status quo, but better, a realistic assessment of the stakes. Should war break out across the Taiwan Strait and Beijing somehow take the island, the US would suffer not only the credibility blow cited, but the loss of TSMC with its semiconductor tech would be a disaster for American AI leadership and much else. Taiwan remains way ahead of the competition in terms of production techniques, and keeps its cutting edge tech in Taiwan by law. Probably very wisely so, as it makes Taiwan very costly for the US to lose.
Hopefully the Trump team will figure out a mix of dealmaking and deterence that works. An allied democracy of 24 million that’s also a really crucial trade partner—arguably more so than Japan, if you think it through.
I am not sure China can survive an energy and food embargo in an ensuing invasion of Taiwan.
China is free to attack Taiwan so long as it wishes an American embargo on Chinese imports. We don't need anything that they sell. We don't want anything that they sell.
"We don't want anything that they sell."
And yet the US imports around $0.5 trillion worth of goods per year from China.
I'd say that qualifies as "wanting" - wouldn't you?
Walmart will always buy cheap junk from the lowest bidder, and there will always be a lowest bider. But we should buy from our friends not our enemies.