I'm old enough to remember the slimy sales pitch that was sold after the Cold War (by just about every establishment politician and journalist) that said more or less: shipping all our factories to China and tearing the heart out of the American middle class will inevitably bring China closer to (or on the path to) "democracy". The idea being some sort of Potemkin altruism where our leaders weren't just selling out their own citizens and personally pocketing what should have been their wages, but were doing it for the benefit of all those faceless Chinese serfs, who through some process of capitalist osmosis would watch so many American movies and stitch so many American T-shirts that they would demand American-style freedoms, which their leaders would have no choice but to grant.
But lo and behold the ironies of History and the eternal human habit of singing a beautiful moralistic song while stuffing your pockets with every spare cent. Instead of the CCP wanting what we have the opposite came true: the moment the globalist class felt their control slipping (how dare those backward Deplorables and Brexiters interfere with the inevitable future!) they broke out the CCP playbook, while drooling with jealousy: digital surveillance, speech codes, travel passes, de-personing, loyalty oaths, and building a superstructure of propagandists to make sure everyone votes as they're told—or Democracy will die! (Cue Taylor Lorenz sobbing)
Since History is never not a rollercoaster ride into the unknown, wouldn't it be hilarious if the CCP cracks and China becomes a democracy of engaged citizens and all that's left of the party's legacy is the tricks they taught aspiring tyrants like Trudeau, Schwab and Ardern etc: the instruction manual for building a digital panopticon overseen by Apple, Google, the UN, various HR apparatchiks and Social Justice commissars?
Who knows, maybe in another generation we'll be making their T-shirts!
Meanwhile, back in the USA and Canada, two countries founded on individual freedom and liberty, the authoritarians seem firmly in charge... seemingly because the same or similar age demographic we see protesting in China, like it that way.
I realize it may be like pissing in the ocean but if Apple deplatforms Twitter I'm hoping they won't need as many iPhones from the closed-loop factories. If the Chinese can risk prison and even their lives I figure I can put up with the discomfort of throwing out my iPhone. I have a family account with 10 phones. Every family member has agreed to take their losses and get rid of their phone if Twitter is deplatformed. If millions of folks in this country and around the world would do the same it's possible it could make a difference.
I think there's not merely inertia of The Narrative that helps to keep current policy in place. There are also financial incentives.
I saw a recent report that about 1% of China's GDP is now COVID testing. That seems too absurd to be true, but maybe? There are a lot of tests.
Many other businesses are incentivized to keep things as-is. I know someone who flew back to China a couple of months ago and they shared the experience with me.
There's still a ten day quarantine for international travelers. You must stay in a hotel and you must pre-pay for all of your food. You do not get to choose your hotel. There are three quality classes of hotel, and you do not get to choose this either. The quality class just determines how much you will end up paying.
The food was prison-tier, but the price for it was not. You also cannot order delivery while in quarantine, the quarantine food and any food you bring with you is all you have.
Stateside, the paperwork to get back in so complicated, and the stakes so high, that nearly everyone hires a travel agent to make sure that everything is in order. Even coach seats are more than $5,000 USD, so you really don't want any mistakes to bump you from the flight.
There must be plenty more individuals that have financially benefited from the pandemic and don't want to see it come to an end. Are they kicking back some of that to decision makers? I don't know, but I do know that Xi Jinping has been especially tough on official corruption but still hasn't eliminated it.
This is a very intriguing piece, many thanks for it! One thing you should be a lot more careful about, though: and that is to roundly denounce mask wearing as a means to reduce transmission of airborne pathogens. This is of course effective, up to a point, if the masks are being worn properly: it's of course not perfect, but no sane person ever claimed it would be. It just helps to reduce transmission (and substantially so), which in the hot phase of an epidemic, can make a substantial difference on the case loads seen in hospitals.
As with most other possible healthcare interventions, there is a time and place for mandatory mask mandates: and the current state of the pandemic is such that there is not much point anymore. So your core point, namely that the Chinese government is annoying people with measures that are pointless right now, still stands. Just do yourself a favour and don't word this in the absolute terms you are using right now.
Wow, (I don't consume the news, you are my China source.) That sucks. I predict a (however brutal as necessary) shut down of protests and then a lessening of the zero covid policy. (Which is maybe the best case scenario.). Maybe Zvi will do a best case and worse case estimate of what happens when covid makes it way through China. (He's probably already done this.)
As a Chinese who was originally born in Urumqi, thank you so much for writing this piece. I really needed this voice to be expressed for my own healing. Thank you.
RE: "Clever Pseudonym" 's accurate characterization of our government's continued endorsement of the "China card" following the collapse of the U.S.S.R. That "Card" may have made sense when Nixon played it in the early 70's (At the height of Soviet power), but should have been discarded when the U.S.S.R. folded in 1991. Our continued "engagement" with China has produced: more power for the hideous CCP to trample the Chinese people, the destruction of much of America's industrial capacity (and the loss of good jobs in the USA), and the staggering growth of the CCP's military might - just to name a few. I have often wondered what the outcome would have been if we had stopped funding the CCP in 1991 and tried reconciling with Russia instead. It seems to me that engaging with Russia at that point could have borne more fruit than continuing to prop up the CCP. The Germans, Chinese and Russians play chess on the world board. America plays tiddlywinks.
I'm old enough to remember the slimy sales pitch that was sold after the Cold War (by just about every establishment politician and journalist) that said more or less: shipping all our factories to China and tearing the heart out of the American middle class will inevitably bring China closer to (or on the path to) "democracy". The idea being some sort of Potemkin altruism where our leaders weren't just selling out their own citizens and personally pocketing what should have been their wages, but were doing it for the benefit of all those faceless Chinese serfs, who through some process of capitalist osmosis would watch so many American movies and stitch so many American T-shirts that they would demand American-style freedoms, which their leaders would have no choice but to grant.
But lo and behold the ironies of History and the eternal human habit of singing a beautiful moralistic song while stuffing your pockets with every spare cent. Instead of the CCP wanting what we have the opposite came true: the moment the globalist class felt their control slipping (how dare those backward Deplorables and Brexiters interfere with the inevitable future!) they broke out the CCP playbook, while drooling with jealousy: digital surveillance, speech codes, travel passes, de-personing, loyalty oaths, and building a superstructure of propagandists to make sure everyone votes as they're told—or Democracy will die! (Cue Taylor Lorenz sobbing)
Since History is never not a rollercoaster ride into the unknown, wouldn't it be hilarious if the CCP cracks and China becomes a democracy of engaged citizens and all that's left of the party's legacy is the tricks they taught aspiring tyrants like Trudeau, Schwab and Ardern etc: the instruction manual for building a digital panopticon overseen by Apple, Google, the UN, various HR apparatchiks and Social Justice commissars?
Who knows, maybe in another generation we'll be making their T-shirts!
Meanwhile, back in the USA and Canada, two countries founded on individual freedom and liberty, the authoritarians seem firmly in charge... seemingly because the same or similar age demographic we see protesting in China, like it that way.
I realize it may be like pissing in the ocean but if Apple deplatforms Twitter I'm hoping they won't need as many iPhones from the closed-loop factories. If the Chinese can risk prison and even their lives I figure I can put up with the discomfort of throwing out my iPhone. I have a family account with 10 phones. Every family member has agreed to take their losses and get rid of their phone if Twitter is deplatformed. If millions of folks in this country and around the world would do the same it's possible it could make a difference.
The future is here, it's just unevenly distributed. Good luck to them, God knows they need it.
I think there's not merely inertia of The Narrative that helps to keep current policy in place. There are also financial incentives.
I saw a recent report that about 1% of China's GDP is now COVID testing. That seems too absurd to be true, but maybe? There are a lot of tests.
Many other businesses are incentivized to keep things as-is. I know someone who flew back to China a couple of months ago and they shared the experience with me.
There's still a ten day quarantine for international travelers. You must stay in a hotel and you must pre-pay for all of your food. You do not get to choose your hotel. There are three quality classes of hotel, and you do not get to choose this either. The quality class just determines how much you will end up paying.
The food was prison-tier, but the price for it was not. You also cannot order delivery while in quarantine, the quarantine food and any food you bring with you is all you have.
Stateside, the paperwork to get back in so complicated, and the stakes so high, that nearly everyone hires a travel agent to make sure that everything is in order. Even coach seats are more than $5,000 USD, so you really don't want any mistakes to bump you from the flight.
There must be plenty more individuals that have financially benefited from the pandemic and don't want to see it come to an end. Are they kicking back some of that to decision makers? I don't know, but I do know that Xi Jinping has been especially tough on official corruption but still hasn't eliminated it.
Great update on the chaos in China !
Letting people determine their own way in dealing with Covid is the only sensible strategy.
Anything else is torture and oppression.
And just like that leftist moral outrage over "police brutality" and mr floyd is nowhere to be found.
This is a very intriguing piece, many thanks for it! One thing you should be a lot more careful about, though: and that is to roundly denounce mask wearing as a means to reduce transmission of airborne pathogens. This is of course effective, up to a point, if the masks are being worn properly: it's of course not perfect, but no sane person ever claimed it would be. It just helps to reduce transmission (and substantially so), which in the hot phase of an epidemic, can make a substantial difference on the case loads seen in hospitals.
As with most other possible healthcare interventions, there is a time and place for mandatory mask mandates: and the current state of the pandemic is such that there is not much point anymore. So your core point, namely that the Chinese government is annoying people with measures that are pointless right now, still stands. Just do yourself a favour and don't word this in the absolute terms you are using right now.
Wow, (I don't consume the news, you are my China source.) That sucks. I predict a (however brutal as necessary) shut down of protests and then a lessening of the zero covid policy. (Which is maybe the best case scenario.). Maybe Zvi will do a best case and worse case estimate of what happens when covid makes it way through China. (He's probably already done this.)
As a Chinese who was originally born in Urumqi, thank you so much for writing this piece. I really needed this voice to be expressed for my own healing. Thank you.
So inspired. “give me liberty or give me death. Let’s put down the phones and get in the streets. Courage. Bravery.
Great post! Said it before and saying it again: big fan of your articles about geopolitics.
RE: "Clever Pseudonym" 's accurate characterization of our government's continued endorsement of the "China card" following the collapse of the U.S.S.R. That "Card" may have made sense when Nixon played it in the early 70's (At the height of Soviet power), but should have been discarded when the U.S.S.R. folded in 1991. Our continued "engagement" with China has produced: more power for the hideous CCP to trample the Chinese people, the destruction of much of America's industrial capacity (and the loss of good jobs in the USA), and the staggering growth of the CCP's military might - just to name a few. I have often wondered what the outcome would have been if we had stopped funding the CCP in 1991 and tried reconciling with Russia instead. It seems to me that engaging with Russia at that point could have borne more fruit than continuing to prop up the CCP. The Germans, Chinese and Russians play chess on the world board. America plays tiddlywinks.