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Madjack's avatar

That was an amazing overview of our current international situation. I have no qualms or caveats, simply praise. Thank you.

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Jacqueline Rose's avatar

Perhaps you have succumbed to the Beltway propaganda-induced hubris. Your analysis of the military action thus far is facile and one-sided. If you weren't largely basing your analysis on Russia's performance that wouldn't matter, but if you are trying to get into Xi's head you might want a more thorough understanding of what you are talking about, as I sincerely doubt Xi relies solely on western intelligence, as you appear to. The western strategy is claimed to be to weaken Russia through extended conflict, while at the same time admitting that NATO is not in a position to win a war against Russia currently. I wonder what Xi makes of that? I wonder what we Americans ought to make of that? Washington's exuberance might be a tad irrational after all.

May I remind you that the "special military operation" is conducted as such because under Russian law a declaration of war would be necessary to fully deploy the Russian military. This is why the troop numbers in Ukraine are so low. The activity around Kiev was not an attempt at taking that city, rather it was a feint to keep Ukrainian forces engaged there while positions in the east were solidified. All the gleeful western chatter about Russia's dashed expectations are just nonsense. Yes, Russia made mistakes, but they've been rectified and their performance has vastly improved. Without direct intervention from the west Russia will win this war. May I also remind you of all the weapons Russia has lately displayed which were previously unseen by the west, and against which the west obviously has no defensive capabilities as yet.

The truth matters here because while the number you provide for Russian casualties seems highly inflated, you don't mention Ukrainian losses at all, which are coming close to 10% of their entire armed forces. What will the west do when they have run out of Ukrainians with which to fight Russia? At some point NATO will have to enter the battle, the same NATO that recently admitted they can't win. The latest scuttlebutt is that the west is supportive of Poland moving troops into western Ukraine while the Romanians are planning to invade Transnistria to help Ukraine maintain access to the Black Sea at Odessa. These operations have already started and troops and equipment are being put in place currently. Sounds like a world war to me. It seems that the most likely outcome is your last choice: global chaos.

Perhaps the saddest thing about this tragedy is that it was entirely avoidable. If the US had not spent billions to turn Ukraine into a nationalist extremist anti-Russian entity that country would be at peace and many thousands of people would still be alive today. The current political situation in Ukraine has a very complex and interesting history. You should learn about it to fully understand exactly what you are lauding when you praise their troops. You should probably learn a bit more about Russian history while you are at it, so you better understand the peril we face here. After reading this analysis I must admit I have lost a great deal of respect for your analytic capabilities; this is quite a disappointing effort.

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