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Pete Kline's avatar

Dear NS, has part three been published yet?

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Snake's avatar

The guiding principle of Chinese politics today is "seek truth from facts", i.e. empiricism. The government collects a lot of facts from their governing activity, and Chinese people also collect a lot of facts from their daily lives in China. On the other hand, your analysis collect facts from mostly western sources, that though numerous, essentially repeat each other and are still biased towards the same political-media social circles, with the same cultural and ideological assumptions that have made incorrect predictions about China continually in the previous decades. They form a closed loop, in which the anti-China messaging is very predictable, and each new source gives you rapidly diminishing returns in terms of actual new information entropy. Even where you quote from Chinese sources, I presume you found them *from* western media, rather than an exploration of Chinese sources from first principles. So your sources, though numerous as an academic article, is still nothing compared to the quantity of facts that the Chinese government and Chinese people must deal with over many decades and years.

The level of understanding of the average western "China watcher" is similar to that of the average Chinese in 1900 trying to understand the west. Possibly even worse, as mass media floods us with redundant information that appears to reinforce a previous belief, when it fact we merely got two copies of the same original source from two different directions.

By contrast, many Chinese people in China today have lived and breathed the west for decades, have connections with overseas Chinese, etc. This type of background understanding has been built up by now. When people form opinions on the west in China, it is not just because they read 40 articles from Chinese media saying the same thing, but because there are social connections with western life experiences backing all of it up, giving contextual credibility to the presence of sources.

In summary, you cannot hope to understand China, only by reading English-language sources. To understand China, you have to immerse yourself in Chinese-language sources, and ideally live in China from time to time. Something to bear in mind when attempting to analyse things individually from an armchair.

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